Aukus: Australia's big gamble on the US over China - BBC News The only truly reliable way to counter the threat would be to attack the submarines in port when they refuel and rearm, he writes. It runs between the Japanese islands of Mikako and Okinawa. How Japan is fortifying a string of tiny islands to fence in China, Taiwan takes lessons from Ukraine as it speeds development of drones for military use, Visiting US Marine Corps chief warns 'everything in the cupboard' needed to prevent war with China, Man discovers two highly venomous species battling in his shed, Inside the family succession drama threatening to change the K-pop industry forever. It would not require the assent of the Governor General and is entirely in the hands of the prime minister of the day. "When I was born in 1945 the world population stood at about 2.7 billion people. It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary. Russia-Ukraine war: Why does China suddenly seem to want to broker It is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear. As president, Joe Biden has stated repeatedly that he would defend Taiwan. Humans have become a predatory species. China is aware of this gap. Russia's struggles in Ukraine are showing US special operators that they'll need to fight without their 'tethers' to win future wars. "They have publicly been very clear about not only . The PLAs missile forces are central to Chinas efforts to deter and counter third-party intervention in a regional conflict, a US congressional report concluded this month. A month earlier, Xi Jinping had told the Peoples Liberation Army: We should persist in using combat to guide our work; step up preparations for war.. Then theres the sheer difficulty the United States would face waging war thousands of miles across the Pacific against an adversary that has the worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. "It is not clear how formidable Taiwan'sdefences would prove to be in the face of a Chinese invasion. Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties. From Taiwan, the PLA could also pivot south, effectively enveloping the Philippines and giving Beijing easier access to the resource-rich Benham Rise, Dr Davis writes. "A big unknown is whether Japan would grant expanded rights to the US to use bases located on its territory, without itself joining the combat directly unless its territory is attacked. And heres our email: letters@nytimes.com. Majority of Australians Would Back U.S. in War With China - Newsweek "Because the stakes for both sides are so high, and both are so well armed, it would swiftly escalate into a full-scale regional maritime war," he says. It can impose costs on our forces. A blockade may be preceded by firepower strikes. Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. Western submarines will play a role in restraining Chinas surface fleet. And Taiwan sitting neatly between the two offers that opportunity. "Firepower strikes described above would be accompanied by cyber operations to ensure information is blocked as well. That leaves its navy as its primary fighting force. "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. "As a continental power, China has a distinct preference for land warfare. I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan. "A blockade means that 80 per cent of ships and aircraft will be unable to pass. Modern warships carry only a limited number of weapons. The US is suddenly no longer the world's only military superpower. I draw here an important difference between politicians and statesmen. Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security Program, told Daily Mail Australia it is increasingly likely President Xi Jinping will order Chinese forces. These engineers break their silenceafterdecade of criticism over2011 Queensland flood handling, Tens of thousands of pigs and buffalo pegged for mass culls in Kakadu, in bid to curb feral animals, With Russian forces closing, Svyat rolled the dice in the last days before Bakhmut fell, Anna called police to report an assault, but it backfired and she lost her home, Home ownership remains in fantasy territory for many. "It may be argued that ANZUS would inevitably push Australia to war but we should not be lazy in coming [to] that conclusion. "I hope they don't mean that, just as Britain has the Gurkhas, the Americans have us. Former defence minister, Christopher Pyne, told an audience in Adelaide that Taiwan was the most likely next flashpoint in the region. Fishing boats could push into ancestral territory, backed up by armed coast guard vessels. There are always a few possibilities that the right thing to do is to go to war irrespective of the expectation that we could 'win' whatever that means. (Handout photo from the U.S. navy) Admiral James Stavridis was 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and 12th Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". A blockade, he says, would mean that 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. Chinas airfields, naval ports and missile bases are all nearby. Why is Australia warning about war with China? A clue: elections loom All have been involved in sensitive military operations. And a mountain range makes it hard to reinforce via its eastern shores. Sign up for the weekly What in the World newsletter here. "The military centre of gravity is China's integrated air defence system (IADS) in the south. No doubt Australian passions would run high. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. Professor Clinton Fernandes is a former intelligence officer with the Australian Army Intelligence Corps and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war. The decision to go to war would not require a public discussion. The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. "Major combat against the United States means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. The world in 2025: China loses power, Russia 'won't exist' "Unlike the Taliban, China has an air force. Behm says a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war Australia has participated in since World War II. "The irrational elements thus make direct large-scale confrontation between two nuclear powers very dangerous. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. While the US remains ahead in space for now, Davis says how long US dominance lasts is not clear. But will it be safer for women? Despite its 1.9 million-strong army, compared to Taiwans cohort of 150,000, the task of taking its island neighbour and holding it is a mammoth military challenge. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. "Yet, as both [Opposition leader] Dutton and [Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence] Richard Marles have indicated in their various pronouncements on the matter, our default position is "all the way with the USA" wherever and whenever. What would war with China look like for Australia? Inflation and unemployment would surge, especially in the period in which the economy is repurposed for the war effort, which might include some automobile manufacturers switching to building aircraft or food-processing companies converting to production of priority pharmaceuticals. Korea was an unnecessary war, as were the conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. And the operating distances are enormous. Don't Do It: An All-Out War With China Could End Humanity It is a bad idea to get into a shooting war with a fellow nuclear power. by Robert Farley L Here's What You Need to. US vs. China: Who Would Win a War in 2030? - The National Interest A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/opinion/a-war-with-china-would-reach-deep-into-american-society.html, more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles, worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force, the East is rising while the West is declining. February 27, 2023 China's foreign minister Qin Gang will attend the G20 foreign ministers' meeting on March 2. They have different opinions on a range of issues, but one thing that is striking about the four is what they agree on. He believes a blockade of Taiwan by China is more likely than a cross-strait invasion. A war with China over Taiwan, awful as that would be, involves no Australian national interests. How Australia could be forced to go to WAR as tensions between China "Australia should use all the means at its disposal to avert a war with China. I did not see anything like the same discontent in Australia. It has been since at least Monash's time. "Depending on the scenario, here's what is reasonably predictable: "Firepower strike can vary from a limited strike against symbolic targets to extensive strikes against energy and transport infrastructure (power stations and petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL) storage sites, highways, railways, bridges, tunnels) as well as military targets (air defence systems, coastal defence cruise missile launchers, fighter aircraft, artillery). They would be forced to operate as part of a much greater allied unit. "It depends. One of the reasons for that is the land force preponderance of the US over the opposing forces. If Australia sleepwalks into a war with China, as many analysts fear is happening right now, then amid our strategic slumber we should at least ask one question: what would war with China mean for Australia? Australia had long maintained it didn't have to choose. We once had a praiseworthy reputation for the quality of our leadership and our officials. To accept that argument as policy would mark the end of our strategic alliance with the US, leaving us more exposed to Chinese coercive pressure and political warfare, or even a direct military threat, Dr Davis says. Surrounded: Disturbing report from Ukraine. There are plenty of nations with grievances against China for its South China Sea policy. In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice Chinas; in 2021, Chinas output was double that of the United States. The high-altitude balloon that drifted across the United States this month was seen by many Americans as a shocking Chinese breach of U.S. sovereignty. The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to Chinas party-state. The impact on Americans would be profound. And I cannot see America being willing to risk Chinese nuclear retaliation against the US homeland for Taiwan's sake. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. What war between China and the US looks like | news.com.au Australia Hopefully Australian statesmen would have played a significant role in the lead up to a breakdown in cross straits relations.". The 100,000-strong Rocket Force was made a separate branch of the Peoples Liberation Army in 2015. Those are easy targets. The US must operate from a few exposed facilities such as Okinawa and Guam. The United States might be forced to confront the shocking realization that the industrial muscle instrumental in victories like that in World War II President Franklin Roosevelts concept of America as the arsenal of democracy has withered and been surpassed by China. A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would punch a hole in the U.S. and allied chain of defenses in the region, seriously undermining Americas strategic position in the Western Pacific, and would probably cut off U.S. access to world-leading semiconductors and other critical components manufactured in Taiwan. But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? China vs Japan - Who Would Win - Army / Military Comparison Hugh White, who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: "I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan." The Bashi Channel connects the South China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. Were sorry, this feature is currently unavailable. The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. "Australia has been there before. According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. Get a note direct from our foreign correspondents on whats making headlines around the world. . And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwan's fate will be resolved. Army Leader Warns About Potential Land War with China Some strategists even use an east-facing map with China at the bottom to show China as being encircled and needing to break out.. He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians "economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear". If that's what they mean, their view should be rejected in favour of Australian sovereignty and parliamentary authorisation.". Principles matter, he writes. That is massive! Vietnam and Iraq were illegal wars, with the US Administration(s) lying to their citizens and their allies about the strategic necessity and the morality of the use of armed force. If war were to break out, China can be expected to use this to disrupt communications and spread fake news and other disinformation. But where does that leave Australia and what does it mean to be a US ally. "This would be a far cheaper and less risky way to achieve its objectives. "When the US closed down Bagram airbase in Afghanistan the Afghan Army collapsed. And doesnt have the necessary reach. "Given the rate at which the Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035. "This looks like another reason for statesmanship in averting this possibility.". A Chinese close-in weapons system (CIWS) designed to shoot down incoming missiles during recent war games. "Were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best scenario one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. "Even so, the UN has not been able to avert war. Taiwan is much closer to China than the United States. But its own submarines, combined with air and land launched missiles, could present an almost constant threat. Should a war break out around the South China Sea, the US would be under pressure to quickly neutralise the roughly 10 man-made islands China has created (seen as unsinkable aircraft carriers) to use as military bases. All times AEDT (GMT +11). It is for that reason that some commentators, including me, do not think that China is likely to initiate an offensive war in the near future, until it is sure that it has enough mass to win quickly. At least initially, the bulk of any such conflict would be at sea. It is very plausible to say there is no guarantee of victory in the first phases, Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at the Naval War Colleges China Maritime Studies Institute, told Newsweek. China is closing the gap, but will they be able to defeat America by the beginning of the next decade. In the recent parliamentary inquiry into war powers reform, the Department of Defence said it didn't think parliament should have authority to decide our involvement because that 'could undermine the confidence of our international partners as a reliable and timely security partner'. China believes the island is part of its territory and has vowed to take it back with force if necessary. John Howard says he has no regrets about the war in Iraq or Australia's involvement in it. ", Any US-China war would be primarily a maritime conflict, and it would be, as we have seen, on a scale unprecedented since the Second World War. Ukrainian, Romanian, and US Army Special . Such concerns must be overcome before any aid can be offered to our allies. "On one hand, if China attacked the US homeland, similar to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, the US would respond with war. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? Taiwans Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said on June 3 that Taipei did not anticipate a conflict was going to break out any time soon, but we are trying to get ourselves ready. "The question is really about a force-on-force comparison between China and the US. "The joint facility at Pine Gap would be a very important, indeed crucial, element in US intelligence gathering and in Command and Control. "Along with military mobilisation China would need to prepare its citizens and economy for a protracted conflict. Blood, sweat and tears. Chinas nuclear weapons are estimated to number between 200 and 350, a mere 5 per cent of the United States arsenal, but potentially enough to deter broader conflict through the prospect of mutual destruction. Building a stronger deterrence by addressing such weaknesses is the best means of averting war. And, crucially, they would probably not be able to inflict enough damage to decisively defeat the Chinese. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. China would seek to pluck out the eyes and ears of the US and allies to make them blind on the battlefield, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. For a second day in a row Taiwan has reported a large-scale air force incursion, escalating tensions in the region. The US Air Force boasts nearly 2300 warplanes in service, with another 1422 aircraft in use for the US Navy and Marines, Janes calculates. China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. If a conflict were to erupt in east Asia, then the Chinese military is closer to on par with the United States. The contemplation of war can only be justified after all other means of settling differences have failed, and we are a long way from reaching this position (over Taiwan)," he says. It has just about every contingency covered. I am sure that survivors of war may have a more considered view. In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades.

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